Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/gh-submissions'

ThomasFaria · ThomasFaria · commit 2091e53b86df · 2023-08-01T18:36:01.000+02:00
diff --git a/.github/workflows/workflow-esa-challenge.yaml b/.github/workflows/workflow-esa-challenge.yaml
@@ -2,10 +2,10 @@ name: Run ESA Challenge
 
 on:
   schedule:
-    # every 16th day of the month at 11am
-    - cron: '00 11 16 * *'
-    # every last week of the month at 1pm
-    - cron: '00 13 25-31 * *'
+    # every 15th day of the month at 3am
+    - cron: '00 15 15 * *'
+    # every last week of the month at 7pm
+    - cron: '00 19 25-31 * *'
   workflow_dispatch:
 
 jobs:
diff --git a/R/dfms_functions.R b/R/dfms_functions.R
@@ -147,14 +147,16 @@ estimate_dfm <- function(data, country, max_factor, max_lags) {
       converged <- dfm$converged
     }
     # We reduce the number of factor, so that we can resimulate when it has failed
-    if (r > 1) {
+    if (r >= 1) {
       r <- r - 1
       lag <- as.double(names(sort(table(vars::VARselect(ic$F_pca[, 1:r])$selection), decreasing = TRUE)[1]))
       if (lag > max_lags) lag <- max_lags
     } else {
       lag <- lag - 1
     }
   }
+  
+  if (!converged & r == 0) cat(paste0("*** WARNING *** Forecast failed for ", country, ", last observation will be used as forecast\n"))
 
   return(dfm)
 }
diff --git a/Submissions/PPI/results_july.json b/Submissions/PPI/results_july.json
@@ -0,0 +1,143 @@
+{
+    "entry_1": {
+        "AT": 137,
+        "BE": 167.4,
+        "BG": 151.8,
+        "CY": 152.4,
+        "CZ": 142.6,
+        "DE": 147.4,
+        "DK": 185.5,
+        "EE": 169.9,
+        "EL": 131.8,
+        "ES": 149.4,
+        "FI": 134.6,
+        "FR": 139.9,
+        "HR": 144,
+        "HU": 238.3,
+        "IE": 147.5,
+        "IT": 142.4,
+        "LT": 150.8,
+        "LU": 141.6,
+        "LV": 167.7,
+        "MT": 118,
+        "NL": 148,
+        "PL": 158.1,
+        "PT": 128.1,
+        "RO": 207.1,
+        "SI": 147.7,
+        "SK": 182.1
+    },
+    "entry_2": {
+        "AT": 128.6,
+        "BE": 168.6,
+        "BG": 155,
+        "CY": 150.4,
+        "CZ": 161.5,
+        "DE": 147.3,
+        "DK": 186.4,
+        "EE": 170.8,
+        "EL": 133.9,
+        "ES": 148.3,
+        "FI": 135.7,
+        "FR": 140.2,
+        "HR": 146,
+        "HU": 20.2,
+        "IE": 142.4,
+        "IT": 139.9,
+        "LT": 151.9,
+        "LU": 142.6,
+        "LV": 173.6,
+        "MT": 116.9,
+        "NL": 150.7,
+        "PL": 160.4,
+        "PT": 128.5,
+        "RO": 213.2,
+        "SI": 147.5,
+        "SK": 183.7
+    },
+    "entry_3": {
+        "AT": 148.2,
+        "BE": 212.9,
+        "BG": 212.3,
+        "CY": 155.8,
+        "CZ": 137.1,
+        "DE": 152.6,
+        "DK": 201,
+        "EE": 191.7,
+        "EL": 146.3,
+        "ES": 147.8,
+        "FI": 151,
+        "FR": 152.8,
+        "HR": 145.4,
+        "HU": 299.1,
+        "IE": 211.7,
+        "IT": 203.5,
+        "LT": 160.6,
+        "LU": 141.7,
+        "LV": 241.2,
+        "MT": 118.9,
+        "NL": 163.7,
+        "PL": 171.2,
+        "PT": 132.9,
+        "RO": 254.5,
+        "SI": 145.6,
+        "SK": 149.3
+    },
+    "entry_4": {
+        "AT": 140.2,
+        "BE": 167.6,
+        "BG": 155.9,
+        "CY": 147,
+        "CZ": 144.3,
+        "DE": 148.1,
+        "DK": 187.3,
+        "EE": 171.5,
+        "EL": 134.5,
+        "ES": 149.3,
+        "FI": 135.6,
+        "FR": 141.7,
+        "HR": 142.8,
+        "HU": 244.8,
+        "IE": 156.4,
+        "IT": 144.7,
+        "LT": 154.7,
+        "LU": 142.3,
+        "LV": 174,
+        "MT": 117,
+        "NL": 149.2,
+        "PL": 161.8,
+        "PT": 129.4,
+        "RO": 221,
+        "SI": 148.1,
+        "SK": 186.6
+    },
+    "entry_5": {
+        "AT": 146.5,
+        "BE": 181.5,
+        "BG": 170.7,
+        "CY": 145.4,
+        "CZ": 144.2,
+        "DE": 152.2,
+        "DK": 189,
+        "EE": 171.6,
+        "EL": 137.1,
+        "ES": 151.7,
+        "FI": 140.8,
+        "FR": 147.4,
+        "HR": 143.9,
+        "HU": 247.8,
+        "IE": 147.5,
+        "IT": 157.4,
+        "LT": 157.5,
+        "LU": 144.9,
+        "LV": 185.3,
+        "MT": 116.8,
+        "NL": 163.9,
+        "PL": 164.5,
+        "PT": 131.4,
+        "RO": 225.5,
+        "SI": 147.4,
+        "SK": 189.1
+    }
+}
+
diff --git a/Submissions/PVI/results_july.json b/Submissions/PVI/results_july.json
@@ -0,0 +1,128 @@
+{
+    "entry_1": {
+        "AT": 127.4,
+        "BE": 122.7,
+        "BG": 115,
+        "CY": 136.4,
+        "CZ": 115.5,
+        "DE": 96.2,
+        "DK": 142.6,
+        "EE": 119,
+        "EL": 120.1,
+        "ES": 106,
+        "FI": 119.2,
+        "FR": 99.1,
+        "HR": 113.1,
+        "HU": 118.4,
+        "LT": 149.2,
+        "LV": 118,
+        "MT": 113.3,
+        "PL": 148.4,
+        "PT": 96.6,
+        "RO": 106.3,
+        "SE": 116.8,
+        "SI": 122.6,
+        "SK": 108.4
+    },
+    "entry_2": {
+        "AT": 122.7,
+        "BE": 119.1,
+        "BG": 112.7,
+        "CY": 135.8,
+        "CZ": 116.3,
+        "DE": 94.6,
+        "DK": 140.5,
+        "EE": 119,
+        "EL": 120.7,
+        "ES": 106,
+        "FI": 120.6,
+        "FR": 100.2,
+        "HR": 116,
+        "HU": 38.6,
+        "LT": 151.6,
+        "LV": 116.8,
+        "MT": 112.6,
+        "PL": 148,
+        "PT": 96.6,
+        "RO": 103.2,
+        "SE": 115.1,
+        "SI": 126.9,
+        "SK": 112
+    },
+    "entry_3": {
+        "AT": 128.5,
+        "BE": 129.2,
+        "BG": 122.7,
+        "CY": 132.6,
+        "CZ": 116.5,
+        "DE": 94.3,
+        "DK": 144.6,
+        "EE": 123.5,
+        "EL": 119.3,
+        "ES": 105.9,
+        "FI": 118.8,
+        "FR": 99.4,
+        "HR": 109,
+        "HU": 125.9,
+        "LT": 150.6,
+        "LV": 120.2,
+        "MT": 111.9,
+        "PL": 157.3,
+        "PT": 103.3,
+        "RO": 105,
+        "SE": 115,
+        "SI": 128.8,
+        "SK": 109.6
+    },
+    "entry_4": {
+        "AT": 128.7,
+        "BE": 123.3,
+        "BG": 111,
+        "CY": 135.3,
+        "CZ": 114.8,
+        "DE": 96.1,
+        "DK": 141.5,
+        "EE": 117.3,
+        "EL": 117.3,
+        "ES": 104.4,
+        "FI": 117.8,
+        "FR": 99.9,
+        "HR": 113.9,
+        "HU": 118.8,
+        "LT": 147.5,
+        "LV": 117.2,
+        "MT": 108,
+        "PL": 148.3,
+        "PT": 97.3,
+        "RO": 106.6,
+        "SE": 115,
+        "SI": 123.3,
+        "SK": 108.5
+    },
+    "entry_5": {
+        "AT": 127.5,
+        "BE": 122.3,
+        "BG": 115.1,
+        "CY": 135.1,
+        "CZ": 114.9,
+        "DE": 96.2,
+        "DK": 140.8,
+        "EE": 118.9,
+        "EL": 120.7,
+        "ES": 106,
+        "FI": 119.6,
+        "FR": 98.9,
+        "HR": 110.5,
+        "HU": 120.1,
+        "LT": 146,
+        "LV": 116.8,
+        "MT": 112.3,
+        "PL": 149.3,
+        "PT": 97.7,
+        "RO": 106.3,
+        "SE": 116.7,
+        "SI": 127.2,
+        "SK": 108.9
+    }
+}
+
diff --git a/Submissions/TOURISM/results_july.json b/Submissions/TOURISM/results_july.json

Original file line number	Diff line number	Diff line change
`@@ -147,14 +147,16 @@ estimate_dfm <- function(data, country, max_factor, max_lags) {`
`147`	`147`	`converged <- dfm$converged`
`148`	`148`	`}`
`149`	`149`	`# We reduce the number of factor, so that we can resimulate when it has failed`
`150`		`- if (r > 1) {`
	`150`	`+ if (r >= 1) {`
`151`	`151`	`r <- r - 1`
`152`	`152`	`lag <- as.double(names(sort(table(vars::VARselect(ic$F_pca[, 1:r])$selection), decreasing = TRUE)[1]))`
`153`	`153`	`if (lag > max_lags) lag <- max_lags`
`154`	`154`	`} else {`
`155`	`155`	`lag <- lag - 1`
`156`	`156`	`}`
`157`	`157`	`}`
	`158`	`+`
	`159`	`+ if (!converged & r == 0) cat(paste0("* WARNING * Forecast failed for ", country, ", last observation will be used as forecast\n"))`
`158`	`160`
`159`	`161`	`return(dfm)`
`160`	`162`	`}`