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lectures/samuelson.md

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@@ -175,7 +175,7 @@ Y_t = \rho_1 Y_{t-1} + \rho_2 Y_{t-2} + (\gamma + G_t)
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where $\rho_1 = (\alpha+\beta)$ and $\rho_2 = -\beta$.
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To complete the model, we require two **initial conditions**.
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To complete the model, we require two *initial conditions*.
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If the model is to generate time series for $t=0, \ldots, T$, we
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require initial values
@@ -192,8 +192,8 @@ a constant value as $t$ becomes large.
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We are interested in studying
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- the transient fluctuations in $Y_t$ as it converges to its
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**steady state** level
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- the **rate** at which it converges to a steady state level
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*steady state* level
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- the *rate* at which it converges to a steady state level
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The deterministic version of the model described so far --- meaning that
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no random shocks hit aggregate demand --- has only transient fluctuations.
@@ -203,11 +203,10 @@ fluctuations by adding a random shock to aggregate demand.
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### Stochastic version of the model
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We create a **random** or **stochastic** version of the model by adding
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a random process of **shocks** or **disturbances**
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We create a *random* or *stochastic* version of the model by adding
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a random process of *shocks* or *disturbances*
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$\{\sigma \epsilon_t \}$ to the right side of equation {eq}`second_order`,
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leading to the **second-order scalar linear stochastic difference
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equation**:
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leading to the *second-order scalar linear stochastic difference equation*:
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```{math}
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:label: second_stochastic
@@ -235,7 +234,7 @@ Y_{t+2} - \rho_1 Y_{t+1} - \rho_2 Y_t = 0
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```
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To discover the properties of the solution of {eq}`second_stochastic2`,
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it is useful first to form the **characteristic polynomial**
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it is useful first to form the *characteristic polynomial*
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for {eq}`second_stochastic2`:
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```{math}
@@ -246,7 +245,7 @@ z^2 - \rho_1 z - \rho_2
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where $z$ is possibly a complex number.
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We want to find the two **zeros** (a.k.a. **roots**) -- namely
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We want to find the two *zeros* (a.k.a. *roots*) -- namely
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$\lambda_1, \lambda_2$ -- of the characteristic polynomial.
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These are two special values of $z$, say $z= \lambda_1$ and
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z^2 - \rho_1 z - \rho_2 = (z- \lambda_1 ) (z -\lambda_2) = 0
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```
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Equation {eq}`polynomial_sol` is said to **factor** the characteristic polynomial.
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Equation {eq}`polynomial_sol` is said to *factor* the characteristic polynomial.
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When the roots are complex, they will occur as a complex conjugate pair.
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(To read about the polar form, see
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[here](https://www.khanacademy.org/math/precalculus/x9e81a4f98389efdf:complex/x9e81a4f98389efdf:complex-mul-div-polar/a/complex-number-polar-form-review))
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Given **initial conditions** $Y_{-1}, Y_{-2}$, we want to generate
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a **solution** of the difference equation {eq}`second_stochastic2`.
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Given *initial conditions* $Y_{-1}, Y_{-2}$, we want to generate
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a *solution* of the difference equation {eq}`second_stochastic2`.
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It can be represented as
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where $v$ and $\theta$ are constants that must be chosen to satisfy initial conditions for $Y_{-1}, Y_{-2}$.
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This formula shows that when the roots are complex, $Y_t$ displays
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oscillations with **period** $\check p =
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\frac{2 \pi}{\omega}$ and **damping factor** $r$.
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oscillations with *period* $\check p =
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\frac{2 \pi}{\omega}$ and *damping factor* $r$.
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We say that $\check p$ is the **period** because in that amount of time the cosine wave $\cos(\omega t + \theta)$ goes through exactly one complete cycles.
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We say that $\check p$ is the *period* because in that amount of time the cosine wave $\cos(\omega t + \theta)$ goes through exactly one complete cycles.
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(Draw a cosine function to convince yourself of this please)
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**Remark:** Following {cite}`Samuelson1939`, we want to choose the parameters
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*Remark:* Following {cite}`Samuelson1939`, we want to choose the parameters
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$\alpha, \beta$ of the model so that the absolute values (of the possibly
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complex) roots $\lambda_1, \lambda_2$ of the characteristic
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polynomial are both strictly less than one:
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| \lambda_j | < 1 \quad \quad \text{for } j = 1, 2
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$$
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**Remark:** When both roots $\lambda_1, \lambda_2$ of the characteristic polynomial have
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*Remark:* When both roots $\lambda_1, \lambda_2$ of the characteristic polynomial have
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absolute values strictly less than one, the absolute value of the larger
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one governs the rate of convergence to the steady state of the non
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stochastic version of the model.
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The next cell studies the implications of reverse-engineered complex
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roots.
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We'll generate an **undamped** cycle of period 10
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We'll generate an *undamped* cycle of period 10
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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r = 1 # Generates undamped, nonexplosive cycles
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### Other methods in the `LinearStateSpace` class
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Let's plot **impulse response functions** for the instance of the
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Let's plot *impulse response functions* for the instance of the
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Samuelson model using a method in the `LinearStateSpace` class
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```{code-cell} ipython3

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