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@kndehaan kndehaan commented Oct 2, 2025

This PR adds improved carbon modelling to the ETM. Changes include:

  • New processes added for the production of liquid fuels and feedstock
  • New carriers bionaphtha, biomethanol, pyrolysis oil and pyrolysis bio-oil added
  • New and existing carriers added to national transport, international transport and chemical industry sectors
  • Expansion of the existing refinery sankey with newly added processes
  • Necessary updates queries for user output

Currently, the update of the following user output is still ongoing (an can be skipped for now in reviewing):

  • Dometic CO2 emissions dashboarditem

Goes with:

@kndehaan kndehaan changed the title Draft PR carbon modelling PR carbon modelling improvements Oct 3, 2025
@kndehaan kndehaan changed the title PR carbon modelling improvements Carbon modelling improvements Oct 3, 2025
@kndehaan kndehaan requested a review from mabijkerk October 3, 2025 12:25
@kndehaan kndehaan marked this pull request as ready for review October 3, 2025 12:25
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Nice to have would be to add a mixer for bio-ethanol and gasoline in the passenger plane section.

image

@mabijkerk
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For the newly added carrier, should we check whether they should be added to some of the carrier costs sliders?

image

useable_heat,0.0,0.0,
water,0.0,0.0,
wet_biomass,0.0,0.0,
wet_biomass,0.0,0.00556,0.112
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Dry, wet and oily biomass now have costs and (potential) emission factor. Does this impact system costs and CO2 emissions?

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Added as must-have in PR review outcomes list, to validate this.

Comment on lines +18 to +26
V(
INTERSECTION(
INTERSECTION(
G(co2_emissions_refinery_products),
SECTOR(industry)
),
USE(non_energetic)),
"demand * weighted_carrier_co2_per_mj * (1 - free_co2_factor)"
),
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I don't see why this addition to the query would be necessary.

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@kndehaan kndehaan Oct 8, 2025

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It seemed complete to not only have the industry non-energetic nodes in there from G(co2_emissions_primary) but also those from G(co2_emissions_refinery_products). But to do this, it should be corrected with the free_co2_factor. However, in the current modelling the result will always be zero.

So we could remove it.

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Added as nice-to-have in PR review outcomes list to remove this part of the query

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@kndehaan I would put this up as must-have.

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I think we typically only refer to primary demand of an "imported" carrier for carriers that have no inherent carbon content, like imported ammonia, electricity or hydrogen. For these carriers we have an explicit version imported_ammonia etc. For methanol this is not the case.

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Added as nice-to-have in PR review outcomes list, to correct this.

@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@
industry_final_demand_for_chemical_wood_pellets,
industry_final_demand_for_chemical_crude_oil,
industry_final_demand_for_chemical_naphtha,
industry_final_demand_for_chemical_bionaphtha,
industry_final_demand_for_chemical_steam_hot_water,
primary_co2_emission),
-MV(industry_chemicals_fertilizers_captured_combustion_co2, demand)
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Shouldn't this query include CCS of refineries and chemical (other). Should it also include fertilizers processes emissions?

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Addiitonally, I don't see where the non-energetic emissions of the industry that we do calculate come into this CO2 sheet. Finally, I'm not sure if there are some changes to CCS in the energy that we need to include in this CO2 sheet, co2_sheet_industry_energy_sector_all_emissions.

More generally, the CO2 sheet queries should be reviewed and updated. That is already a known issue, #3217, so perhaps we should pick it up outside of this project?

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I agree that the CO2 sheet queries should be reviewed and updated, best to pick this up outside of this project.

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The queries that were originally part of this query are different from the two queries they have been replaced with. This can lead to mismatches.

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@
transport_ship_using_electricity,
transport_ship_using_hydrogen,
transport_ship_using_ammonia,
transport_ship_using_methanol_mix,
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Shouldn't methanol be added to the section of this query that applies the refinery products method?

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See comment above.

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We now only use the sankey_overview right? Should we still keep these sankey queries?

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I think some of the queries in this folder are still used. This would required an investigation of which queries are still used and a properly relocating the queries to the appropriate folder.

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kndehaan commented Oct 9, 2025

@mabijkerk regarding to open comments that require a response:

  • Mixer bio-ethanol and gasoline: added as nice-to-have in PR review outcomes list
  • Update cost sliders: added as nice-to-have in PR review outcomes list
  • CO2 sheet: at some point, we should take the time to review the CO2 sheet. So this is something to be taken up in the product backlog.
  • Sankey queries: this is also a long standing desire to restructure the queries and folders, since it's scattered in different places. At some point, we need to take the time to look into this.

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Final item of discussion is to define methanol as CO2 primary or refinery product.

@kndehaan kndehaan merged commit 3f538f0 into master Oct 9, 2025
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@kndehaan kndehaan deleted the carbon-modelling branch October 9, 2025 12:41
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4 participants